Mitigating the impact of climate change driven extreme weather on forests using improved species modelling
Stage in GSE Lifecyle
Primary stage : Define / Design
Related stage(s) : Create | Build Capability
Species choice for future rotations and new woodlands requires long-term thinking, as tree management cycles occur over 40-100+ years, so it is imperative we have the tools to identify climate risks to future plantations. From prior data, developing knowledge of risks and recent publications Forest Research Climate Change Group identified substantial improvements could be made to the underpinning advice we give on species suitability under future climate scenarios. A key risk that we identified was the increase and severity of drought to species suitability and productivity, requiring new applied research to ensure long-term resilience.
To address this problem, we acknowledged that current tree growth models lacked sensitivity to hydrological stresses, we subsequently defined how these issues could be addressed, and how future outputs could be best disseminated to practitioners and policy makers to support informed policy and management decisions.
We developed a climate sensitive model of tree growth with improved sensitivity to drought conditions. This enables the impact of soil hydrology, water availability and associated physiological stresses to be evidenced in terms of future yield risk for key plantation species in different locales. The integrated model framework allows consideration of the probability of droughts occurring under future climate scenarios and the subsequent loss of growth to define a probabilistic assessment of risk which is easy to understand.
The model can be implemented across HMG devolved forestry administrations through its integration into an easy-to-use application that allows for user and pre-defined scenarios to be assessed. The model additionally incorporates uncertainty metrics associated with outputs, allowing for informed decisions from policy makers and practitioners.
An image of a forest fire which are more frequently experienced due an increase in extreme weather events caused by climate change.
Team
Forest Research Climate Change Research Group
Department(s)
Forest Research, Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Contact Details
Email : climatechangegroup@forestresearch.gov.uk
Description
The Climate Change Research Group works to improve understanding of: the impact of climate change on forests and forestry; what role forestry can have in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and climate change; and how forestry can adapt to reduce the impact of climate change and to benefit from any opportunities